A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
